When America Goes Dark, What Comes Next? (2024)

Soaring energy demands and unprecedented heatwaves have placed the U.S. on the brink of a severe threat with the potential to impact millions of lives: widespread grid failure across multiple states. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), tasked with overseeing grid reliability under the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), has issued warnings about the heightened risk of grid failures, the prospect of widespread summer blackouts looms large amid the nation’s unpreparedness for such scenarios.

As a proactive measure, there needs to be a mandate for the implementation of an Executive Order or an interagency Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) mandating the expansion of Public Health and Emergency Response Planning for Widespread Grid Failure Under Extreme Heat. This urgently needed action would help mitigate the worst impacts of future grid failures under extreme heat, safeguarding lives, the economy, and national security as the U.S. moves toward a more sustainable, stable, and reliable electric grid system.

When the lights go out, restoring power across America is a complex, intricate process requiring seamless collaboration among various agencies, levels of government, and power providers amid constraints extending beyond just the loss of electricity. In a blackout, access to critical services like telecommunications, transportation, and medical assistance is also compromised, which only intensifies and compounds the urgency for coordinated response efforts. To avert blackouts, operators frequently implement planned and unplanned rolling blackouts, a process for load shedding that eases strain on the grid. However, these actions may lack transparent protocols and criteria for safeguarding critical medical services. Equally crucial and missing are frameworks to prioritize regions for power restoration, ensuring equitable treatment for low-income and socially vulnerable communities affected by grid failure events.

Thus, given the gravity of these high-risk, increasingly probable scenarios facing the United States, it is imperative for the federal government to take a leadership role in assessing and directing planning and readiness capabilities to respond to this evolving disaster.

Challenge

Grids are facing unprecedented strain due to record-high temperatures, which reduce their energy transmission efficiency and spike demand for air conditioning during the summer. On top of this, new industries are pushing grids to their limits. The Washington Post and insights from the utility industry cite the exponential growth of artificial intelligence and data centers for cloud computing and crypto mining as drivers of a nearly twofold increase in electricity consumption over the past decade.

Projections from NERC paint a dire picture: between 2024 and 2028, an alarming 300 million people across the United States could face power outages. This underscores the pressing need for robust emergency response and public health planning.

The impact of power loss is especially profound for vulnerable populations, including those reliant on electricity-dependent medical equipment and life-saving medications that require refrigeration. Extreme heat significantly increases public health risks by exacerbating mental health, behavioral disorders, and chronic illnesses such as heart and respiratory conditions, and increasing the likelihood of preterm births and developmental issues in infants and children. Excessive temperatures also impose burdens on older adults.

Since 2015, national power outages have surged by over 150% owing to demand and extreme weather amplified by climate change. Increasing temperatures can cause transformers to overheat and explode, sometimes sparking fires and cascading outages. Other types of severe weather events, such as lightning strikes, high winds, and flying debris, further escalate the risk of utility infrastructure damage.

In 2020, 22 extreme weather events – from cyclones to hurricanes, heat, and drought – cost the U.S. a combined $95 billion. The following year, disasters like the Texas winter storm and the Pacific Northwest heatwave vividly illustrated the severe consequences of extreme weather on grid stability. To put this into perspective,

• The Pacific Northwest heatwave resulted in thousands of heat-related emergency department visits and over 700 deaths.
• During the Texas winter storm, 4.5 million customers went without power, leading to over 240 deaths and economic damages estimated at $130 billion.

These events led to rolling blackouts, thousands of heat-related emergency room visits, numerous deaths, and substantial economic losses. This remains an actively ongoing paradigm, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) 2023 Billion-dollar disaster report confirming 28 weather and climate disasters in a single year, surpassing the previous record of 22 in 2020, with a price tag of at least $92.9 billion.

Historical disasters, such as Hurricane Maria in 2017 and the Northeastern blackout in 2003, are stark reminders of the devastating impact of prolonged power outages. The aftermath of such events includes loss of life, disruptions to healthcare access, and extensive economic damages.

• Hurricane Maria affected 1.6 million people, with loss of electricity for 328 days, 4600 direct deaths – 70 times the official toll – and an estimated third more excess deaths attributed to the lack of access to health care, and an estimated $90 billion in damages.
• The Northeastern blackout impacted 30 million customers across the U.S. and Canada, causing at least 11 deaths and estimated economic losses of $6 billion.

A stark 2023 study reported that “If a multi-day blackout in Phoenix coincided with a heat wave, nearly half the population would require emergency department care for heat stroke or other heat-related illnesses.” Under such conditions, the researchers estimate that 12,800 people in Phoenix would die.

During these events, restoring power and providing mass care falls on various entities. Utility and power operators are tasked with repairing grid infrastructure, while the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) coordinates interagency actions through its National Response Framework and Emergency Support Functions (ESFs).

For example, ESF #6 handles mass care missions like sheltering and feeding, while ESF #8 coordinates public health efforts, overseen by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). FEMA’s Power Outage Incident Annex (POIA) enables utility operators to request support through ESF #12.While there is some testing of system responses to blackouts, few states have conducted exercises at scale, which is crucial, given the immense complexity of restarting grid infrastructure and coordinating mass care operations simultaneously.

Opportunity

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Liberty Eclipse Program exemplifies a successful public-private partnership aimed at bolstering energy sector preparedness against cyberattacks on the grid. Similarly, FEMA conducts numerous Incident Command Systems (ICS) training annually, emphasizing collaboration across governments, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector.

By leveraging interagency mechanisms like MOUs, FEMA, DOE, and HHS can integrate and expand exercises addressing heat-induced grid failure into existing training frameworks. Such collaborative efforts would ensure a comprehensive approach to preparedness. Additionally, funds typically earmarked for state and local agency training could cover their participation costs in these exercises, optimizing resource utilization and ensuring widespread preparedness across all government levels.

There are also several federal policy efforts currently aligned with this proposal’s objectives, demonstrating a concerted effort to address related challenges through legislation, executive branch actions, programs, and precedents. Notable legislative initiatives, such as Rep. Ruben Gallego’s proposal to amend the Stafford Act, underscore a growing recognition of the unique threats posed by extreme heat events and the need for proactive federal measures.

Simultaneously, regulatory initiatives, such as those by FERC, signal a proactive stance in enhancing energy infrastructure resilience against extreme weather events. Building on an established precedent, FERC could direct NERC to create extreme heat reliability standards for power sector operators, akin to those established for extreme cold weather in 2024 (E-1 | RD24-1-000), further ensuring the reliable operation of the Bulk Electric System (BES).A pivotal resource informing our proposal is the 2018 report by the President’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council (NIAC), which emphasizes the significance of addressing catastrophic grid failure and underscores ongoing efforts dedicated to this pressing issue. Tasked with assessing the nation’s preparedness for “catastrophic power outages beyond modern experience,” the report offers invaluable insights and recommendations, particularly relevant to the following recommendation.

Plan of Action

To enhance national resilience, save tens of thousands of lives, and prevent significant economic losses, the National Security Council (NSC) should coordinate collaboration between implicated agencies (DOE, HHS, and FEMA) on grid resilience under extreme heat conditions and work to establish an interagency MOU to fortify the nation’s resilience against extreme heat events, with a specific focus on disaster planning for grid failure. This proposal will have minimal direct impact on the federal budget as it will use existing frameworks within agencies such as FEMA, the DOE, and HHS. These agencies already allocate resources towards preparedness training and testing, as evidenced by their annual budgets.

Recommendation 1. NSC should initiate a collaboration between DOE, HHS, and FEMA.

The NSC should direct DOE to assess grid resilience under extreme heat and coordinate and prepare for widespread grid failure events in collaboration with FEMA and HHS. This collaboration would involve multi-state, multi-jurisdictional entities, tribal governments, and utilities in scaling planning and preparedness.

Under this coordinated action, federal agencies, with input from partners in the NSC should undertake the following steps:

The DOE Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER), in collaboration with FERC and NERC, should develop comprehensive extreme heat guidelines for utilities and energy providers. These guidelines should include protocols for monitoring grid performance, implementing proactive maintenance measures, communicating concerns and emerging issues, and establishing transparent and equitable processes for load shedding during extreme heat events. Equitable and transparent load shedding is critical as energy consumption rises, driven in part by new industries like clean tech manufacturing and data centers.

FEMA should:

• Update the National Incident Management System to include extreme heat-induced grid failure in disaster response scenarios.
• Conduct risk assessments and develop a whole community approach to emergency response and preparedness plans to address the scale of widespread, multi-state grid failure events. This is in line with FEMA’s goal to increase resilience in the face of more frequent, far-reaching, and widespread natural and manmade disasters.
• Collaborate with state, tribal, and local governments, utilities, NGOs, and other partners to identify critical infrastructure vulnerabilities and prioritize mitigation and response measures, incorporating an equity mapping component to ensure equitable distribution of resources and assistance.

HHS should strengthen functions under ESF#8 to deliver public health services during extreme heat-induced grid failure events, with enhanced coordination between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR).

Recommendation 2. Establish an interagency MOU

An interagency MOU should streamline coordination and collaboration on extreme heat disaster planning and preparedness for grid failure. Further, these agreements should prepare agencies to facilitate cross-sector collaboration with states and local governments through the establishment of a national task force.

This MOU should outline the following actions:

• Joint task force: Create a task force comprising lead representatives from relevant agencies and partner organizations to develop, advance, and test extreme heat-induced grid failure disaster planning and preparedness. This task force would lead efforts to formulate planning strategies, conduct disaster training exercises, and facilitate the exchange of critical information among emergency managers, public health emergency preparedness (PHEP) teams, utilities, and medical providers.
• Information sharing protocols: Develop standardized protocols for sharing data and intelligence on heatwave forecasts, grid stability alerts, and response capabilities across agencies and jurisdictions.
• Training and exercise programs: Coordinate the development and implementation of training exercises to test and improve response procedures to extreme heat events across sectors.
• Public outreach and education: Collaborate on public outreach campaigns to raise awareness about heat-related risks and preparedness measures. Disseminate existing communication tools and education programs developed for weather disasters through local agencies to enhance family and neighborhood resilience to extreme heat-induced grid failures. Special attention should be given to meeting the needs of vulnerable populations, with a strong emphasis on equity, public health, and social cohesion. Resources such as the HHS emPOWER Program Platform and ArcGIS mapping tools like the National Integrated Heat Health Information System’s (NIHHIS) “Future Heat Events and Social Vulnerability,” FEMA’s Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool (RAPT), or the CDC’s Environmental Justice and Map Dashboard offer data-driven approaches to achieve this objective.
• Community resilience: FEMA, branches of HHS, CDC, and ASPR, in collaboration with branches of the NOAA, including the National Weather Service and the NIHHIS, should work to help communities fortify their resilience against widespread blackouts during extreme heat events. Leveraging existing weather disaster resources for storms, fires, and hurricanes, resilience planning should be expanded and adapted to address the loss of electricity, water, and sanitation systems; communication breakdowns; transportation disruptions; and interruptions in medical services under extreme heat conditions.

Conclusion

This proposal emphasizes planning for blackouts and response readiness when the lights go out across wide swaths of America during extreme heat. Addressing this critical gap in federal disaster response planning would secure the safety of millions of citizens and prevent billions of dollars in potential economic losses.

An Executive Action or interagency MOU would facilitate coordinated planning and preparedness, leveraging existing frameworks and engaging stakeholders beyond traditional boundaries to effectively manage potential catastrophic, multi-state grid failures during heat waves. Specific steps to advance this initiative include ensuring no ongoing similar exercises, scheduling meetings with pertinent agency leaders, revisiting policy recommendations based on agency feedback, and drafting language to incorporate into interagency MOUs.

Using existing authorities and funding, implementing these recommendations would safeguard lives, protect the economy, and bolster national security, particularly as the U.S. moves toward a more sustainable, stable, and reliable electric grid system.

This idea of merit originated from our Extreme Heat Ideas Challenge. Scientific and technical experts across disciplines worked with FAS to develop potential solutions in various realms: infrastructure and the built environment, workforce safety and development, public health, food security and resilience, emergency planning and response, and data indices. Review ideas to combat extreme heat here.

This policy memo was written by the Federation of American Scientists in collaboration with the Pima County Department of Health (Dr. Theresa Cullen, Dr. Julie Robinson, Kat Davis), which provided research and information support to the authors. The Pima County Department of Health seeks to advance health equity and environmental justice for the citizens of Arizona and beyond.